OVO

Trevor Blake: Suffrage [LINK-ZUM]

Question: In the United States, is there a relation between when a group of people gains suffrage and the percentage of that group that is registered to vote?

Conjecture: The longer a specific group has suffrage, the higher the percentage of registered voters in that specific group will be.

Data: Voting in the United States is based on state law and not federal law. There is no nation-wide right to vote, only nation-wide laws that prevent states from excluding specific groups from voting. This survey uses federal laws preventing state exclusion of specific groups as data points.

1787: United States Constitution grants suffrage to 21-and-older land-owning white male non-Christians.
1856: Suffrage granted to 21-and-older landless white males.
1870: 15th Amendment grants suffrage to 21-and-older non-white non-Native American males.
1920: 19th Amendment grants suffrage to 21-and-older women.
1924: Suffrage granted to 21-and-older Native Americans.
1971: Suffrage granted to those 18-and-older.

The 2004 census makes suggests about specific groups and their rate of registration to vote.

I do not know how to make us of the following data in this investigation. These specific groups were granted suffrage in a staggered fashion. For example, blacks gained suffrage before women did, thus no single percentage can be listed for a group made up of both blacks and of women.

69.5%: white non-hispanic women.
67.9%: white non-hispanic, both sexes.
67.9%: black women.
67.6%: 18-and-older women, black and white.
66.2%: white non-hispanic men.
64.4%: black, both sexes.
64%: 18-and-older men, black and white.
60%: black men.

For the next set of specific groups, gender and ethnicity are not limitations to suffrage. All of the following specific groups have had suffrage for the same amount of time, 37 years.

55.6%: 19-year-old women.
55.1%: 20-year-old women.
53.8%: 19-year-olds, both sexes.
51.5%: 18-year-old women.
51.5%: 20-year-olds, both sexes.
50.2%: 19-year-old men.
47.9%: 20-year-old men.
46.8%: 18-year-olds, both sexes.
42.1%: 18-year-old men.

Conclusion: based on the data consulted and my limited statistical skills, I conclude that the length of time a specific group is granted suffrage is not related to the percentage of that specific group that will register to vote. Groups with the same time period of suffrage (37 years) vary by more than 13% in their registration rates. It is possible there is a relation between gender and suffrage, as women appear to register to vote more often than men no matter their ethnicity or age. My conclusion could be refuted by a better data set or increased statistical skills.

Note: this post has changed significantly over the course of the day, as I find and correct errors and omissions.

Labels: race, science, sex

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